How to Calculate Probabilities, Part 2
Learn how to solve last week’s brain teaser about using probability trees to decide if and when you should go to the beach. Then use a probability tree to discover a famous and fascinating pattern in the probabilities of flipping coins.
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The top branch represents the possibility that it will be sunny and that we’ll be able to park. If we estimate that the probability of sun is 70% and the probability of being able to park when it’s sunny is 60%, then (as shown in the top-right of the drawing) the total probability for these two things is 0.7 x 0.6 = 0.42 or 42%. The next branch down shows that there is a 0.7 x 0.4 = 0.28 or 28% chance of sunshine but, sadly, no parking spaces for us to be able to get out of the car and enjoy it.
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About the Author
Jason Marshall is the author of The Math Dude’s Quick and Dirty Guide to Algebra. He provides clear explanations of math terms and principles, and his simple tricks for solving basic algebra problems will have even the most math-phobic person looking forward to working out whatever math problem comes their way.
